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doi:10.3850/978-981-08-7920-4_S1-R08-cd
A Methodology for Evaluating the Significant Potential Contract Risks at the Tender Evaluation Stage
D. E. Samuel1 and A. K. Petersen2
1Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering, University of the West Indies, St Augustine, Trinidad.
2Department of Civil Engineering, University of Applied Science, Mainz, Germany.
ABSTRACT
This research paper will present a mathematical model for evaluating the significant potential contract risks at the tender evaluation stage for construction projects in Trinidad and Tobago, West Indies. This paper will demonstrate that statistical tools such as Monte Carlo Simulation, Logistic Regression and The Project Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT) can be used to correctly predict and evaluate the significant potential contract risks at the tender evaluation stage, namely Performance Risk, Cost Risk and Schedule Risk. It will also be shown that further research is required to sufficiently verify and validate the mathematical model. The researchers are of the view that the research may significantly contribute to the existing knowledge base by increasing the efficiency of tender evaluations. This is a tangible benefit to the construction industry in Trinidad and Tobago where there are cost overruns, time overruns and poor quality in construction projects.
Keywords: Risks, Tender evaluations, Statistical tools, Research, Efficiency, Trinidad and tobago.
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